Match Preview
February 7, 2025 | Allianz Arena | Bundesliga Matchday21
Bayern Munich enters this fixture as league leaders with 51 points from 20 matches (16 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), holding a six-point lead over second-placed Bayer Leverkusen. Their objective is clear: maintain dominance to secure a 33rd Bundesliga title. Werder Bremen, sitting eighth with 30 points (8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses), aims to close the gap on European qualification spots (currently 7 points behind fourth place).
Seasonal/Managerial Changes
- Bayern Munich: Vincent Kompany’s tactical overhaul has emphasized aggressive pressing and verticality, with Harry Kane (19 goals, 6 assists) anchoring a revamped attack. Key summer signings like Michael Olise (6 goals, 7 assists) have bolstered creativity.
- Werder Bremen: Stability under Ole Werner, who favors a pragmatic 3-4-2-1 system. New striker André Silva (ex-RB Leipzig) adds depth, but defensive suspensions (Marco Friedl, Niklas Stark) weaken their backline.
Team Analysis
Recent Form
| Team | Last 5 Matches (All Competitions) | Result Trends |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 4-3 vs Kiel, 3-1 vs Slovan Bratislava, 2-1 vs Freiburg, 4-0 vs Augsburg, 1-0 vs Leverkusen | 5 wins, 18 goals scored |
| Werder Bremen | 1-0 vs Mainz, 2-2 vs Dortmund, 0-2 vs Augsburg, 1-1 vs Heidenheim, 1-3 vs Leipzig | 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses |
Head-to-Head Records
- Bayern have won 24 of the last 26 meetings, including a 5-0 thrashing in September 2024.
- Werder’s lone recent victory: a 1-0 shock at the Allianz Arena in January 2024.
Comparative Notes
- Bayern: Improved attacking output (+0.4 goals/game vs 2023/24) but defensive lapses (1.0 goals conceded/game vs 0.8 last season).
- Werder: More clinical in attack (1.74 goals/game vs 1.3 in 2023/24) but vulnerable defensively (1.89 goals conceded/game).
Tactical Analysis
Likely Formations
- Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): High press, wide overloads, and rapid transitions. Fullbacks (Boey, Guerreiro) invert to support midfield.
- Werder Bremen (3-4-2-1): Compact low block, quick counters via wing-backs (Weiser, Kohn), and reliance on Ducksch’s hold-up play.
Build-Up & Pressing
| Team | Build-Up Style | Pressing Intensity (PPDA*) |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | Patient circulation (71% avg possession) | High (8.5 PPDA) |
| Werder Bremen | Direct long balls (48% possession) | Moderate (12.1 PPDA) |
Defensive Shape
- Bayern: High defensive line (50m from goal), zonal marking. Vulnerable to counters (3 goals conceded vs Kiel).
- Werder: Deep block (25m), man-marking in the box. Struggles vs set pieces (36% aerial duel win rate).
Key Player Analysis
Injury/Suspension Updates
- Bayern: Alphonso Davies (hamstring), Daniel Peretz (kidney) out.
- Werder: Marco Friedl, Niklas Stark (suspended); Keke Topp (ankle).
Key Players
| Player (Team) | Role | Stats (2024/25) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane (FCB) | Striker | 19 goals, 6 assists 0.78 xG/game | Clinical finisher 63% shot accuracy |
| Jamal Musiala (FCB) | Attacking Mid | 10 goals, 5 assists 2.3 dribbles/game | Dribbles disrupt defensive lines |
| Marvin Ducksch (SVW) | Striker | 6 goals, 7 assists 1.2 key passes/game | Target for crosses & counters |
| Mitchell Weiser (SVW) | Wing-back | 3 goals, 5 assists 2.1 tackles/game | Overloads right flank; crosses |
Data Comparison
Attack Metrics
| Indicator | Bayern Munich | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals/game | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| xG/game | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Shots on target/game | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| Counter-attack goals | 4 | 2 |
Defense Metrics
| Indicator | Bayern Munich | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals conceded/game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| xGA/game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Tackles/game | 16.7 | 14.3 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 3 |
Data sourced via FootyStats.org & Opta.
Manager/Media Comments & Scenarios
Manager Quotes
- Vincent Kompany: “We’re focused on Bremen. They’re strong away, but we’ll play our game.”
- Ole Werner: “An upset is possible. We’ll fight for every duel.”
Media Outlook
- Sky Sports: “Bayern’s firepower too much for Bremen’s shaky defense.”
- Kicker: “Ducksch’s movement could exploit Bayern’s high line.”
Potential In-Game Scenarios
- Early Bayern goal: Forces Werder to abandon low block, leaving space for Musiala/Olise.
- Werder set-piece: 34% of their goals come from dead balls; Bayern must track Jung/Veljkovic.
Expected Lineups & Score Prediction
Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1):
Neuer (GK) – Boey, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro – Kimmich, Pavlović – Olise, Müller, Sané – Kane
Werder Bremen (3-4-2-1):
Zetterer (GK) – Jung, Veljković, Pieper – Weiser, Stage, Lynen, Kohn – Schmid, Grüll – Ducksch
Score Prediction: Bayern Munich 3-1 Werder Bremen
- Rationale: Bayern’s xG superiority (2.8 vs 1.4) and home form (9 wins in 10 games) outweigh Werder’s counter threat.
Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Bayern’s attacking depth and home advantage make them favorites.
- Werder’s defensive absences and reliance on transitions limit upset potential.
Impact on Competition
- A Bayern win extends their lead to 9 points, pressuring Leverkusen.
- Werder risks falling 10 points off Europe with a loss.
Next Fixtures
- Bayern: UCL playoff vs Celtic (Feb 18), Bundesliga vs Leverkusen (Feb 15).
- Werder: Bundesliga vs Hoffenheim (Feb 16), DFB-Pokal vs Bielefeld (Feb 25).
